Anyone paying even a little attention knows world economics
is somewhere between shambles to devastating depending upon your location and
economic status. Historically, what has changed is the fundamental base of
international economic understanding. When economies went from tangible to
intangible, from riches and product to computer numbers, there was also a
fundamental change in computations.
Banking and corporate computations in the past were ledgers
of basically addition and subtraction. Values placed on items calculated for
their value based on raw material + labor + availability/demand +
transportation + profit customarily ranging between 1-10%.
Merchant Companies made their money with a profit which
showed an ebb & flow across the world that remained less than five percent
for centuries. From the commencement of
the industrial revolution and the stock exchanges it could be said that
economic growth expanded exponentially. The most recent change happened with
the 1973 introduction of algebra into economics by Black & Scholes.
Just like theoretical mathematics has no practical
application, the Black Scholes equation turns a minus into a plus. The
unbelievable part is that when applied to economics the equation can turn
multi-million dollar losses into stock option plus. The equation was recently used on a $60
Million Dollar loss to turn it into a $28 Million Dollar Profit, well, on paper
anyway.
Here’s a portion of the calculation:
Is this really good for business? It depends upon where you
are in the business. The derivation calculation covers the fact that the stock
is tanking. Options given to early investors are propped up through financial
algebra to entice additional investment. The continued investment gives the financially
strapped company an influx of money to pay down debt, providing an opportunity
to turn things around.
However, the likelihood that there will be enough investment
and the will of the executives to change the direction of the company from a
cash drain to a cash cow is slim. The truth is that once a company travels into
the world of Black Scholes accounting devastatingly large bankruptcy is virtually
inevitable.
Obviously, algebra & economics don’t mix, why do it? The
answer is time. Nebulous accounting strategies allow early investors to get out
of the investment or at least to mitigate their losses. It allows time for patents
and assets to be sold. With that time, the company is allowed to fade away from
public scrutiny before it crashes into oblivion.
In the end, basic bookkeeping with endless columns of pluses
& minuses remains the only way to keep the economy headed in the right
direction: Raw material + labor +
overhead + 10%.